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• Within that, and reflecting the latest interim national population projections, potential labour supply growth is around ¾% per annum in the medium term.

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Annual private sector regular average weekly earnings (AWE) growth was 6.0% in the three months to November, higher than expected in the November Report, but an indicator-based model of underlying pay growth was little changed on the quarter. The MPC was also monitoring the impact on growth and inflationary pressures from the measures announced in Autumn Budget 2024, and from geopolitical tensions and trade policy uncertainty. Monetary policy had been guided by the need to squeeze remaining inflationary pressures out of the economy to achieve the 2% target both in a timely manner and on a lasting basis. Bank staff expected GDP growth to have been weaker at the end of the year than had been projected in the November 2024 Report.

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The response of the sterling exchange rate is likely to be a key determinant of the overall impact of changes in global trade policies on UK inflation, particularly in the near term. That said, in the event of a global escalation of trade tariffs, exchange rates may also respond to changes in risk perceptions and risk aversion in global markets. A higher sterling exchange rate could add to the fall in US demand for UK exports to some extent, while also reducing the cost of UK imports, pushing down on UK inflation. Sterling might appreciate or depreciate depending on other countries’ trade policies and the evolution of global risk sentiment. At the same time, it might lead to more intense competition for UK producers of tradable goods. Assuming no change in UK trade policy, falls in UK import costs due online casino australia to such trade diversion effects would increase real incomes and consumption of UK households.

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At the time of the February 2024 Report, the evidence suggested that there had been no significant drag on productivity due to the recent energy price shock.footnote Updated analysis continues to support this conclusion. In time, this may be reflected in the LFS data as they incorporate the latest National Population Projections. That said, alternative data sources imply stronger employment growth since mid-2021, which would also reduce measured productivity on a per worker basis. Mechanically this has resulted from moderate GDP growth of 0.9% being outpaced by much stronger growth in total hours worked. In addition, the impacts of the recently increased rates of National Insurance contributions (see Box D), which were incorporated into the November 2024 forecast, are also expected to weigh on participation.

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